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The Relationship Between US Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Chinese Stock Market Was Discussed at the 3rd International Yeditepe Congress

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The Relationship Between US Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Chinese Stock Market Was Discussed at the 3rd International Yeditepe Congress


Asst. Prof. Burcu Savaş Çelik, Assistant Director of the Center for Sustainable Environment and Society Applications and Research at Istanbul Gelişim University, presented her full-text paper titled "The Relationship Between the Chinese Stock Market and US Monetary Policy Uncertainty" at the Yeditepe University International Congress held on October 12, 2025.


Asst. Prof. Çelik's study attracted attention for its econometric analysis of the impact of US monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) on Chinese capital markets in an era of increasing global financial integration. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2023, the study analyzed the long- and short-term relationships between the Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC), the CSI1000 index, the US-China Trade War Index (UCT), and Renewable Energy Stock Prices (RenEw) using ARDL bounds tests.
 
According to the findings, US monetary policy uncertainty exhibits a significant relationship with some indicators in Chinese markets. In particular, the CSI1000 index and renewable energy stock prices were found to have a positive impact on the MPU, while the US-China trade war index had a decreasing effect on uncertainty. The study reveals that financial interactions between the two major economies drive investor behavior and global capital flows.
 
In his presentation, Asst. Prof. Çelik stated, “Uncertainty in financial markets is shaped not only by domestic factors but also by global political and economic fluctuations. The impact of the policies of two major economies, the US and China, on emerging markets should be carefully analyzed.”
 
This research, one of the few studies in the literature, comprehensively examines the impact of US monetary policy on Chinese capital markets and makes a significant contribution to the international finance literature.
 
This study, presented at the congress, serves as an important reference for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows and shedding light on the decision-making processes of policymakers and investors.

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